AGI Estimate

"Soft" AGI (Economic Singularity)

Months

Window: Q4 2026 – Q2 2027

Milestones Breached

Total Checkpoints

-22

Months Collapsed

880

Dark IQ Index

Progress 32%

Dark IQ Index

880 Dark IQ (Event Horizon: 1000)

88% TO SINGULARITY

Status	Trigger	Boost	Meaning
Active	CENT_LEVEL_ENGINEER	+200	DeepSeek V3: $0.27/1M tokens. Intelligence costs less than human metabolism. Source
Active	TASK_OBSOLESCENCE	+80	50% task-level obsolescence. AI can perform the task; firing lag is bureaucratic. Amodei Interview
Active	THE_REALITY_FORK	+90	DeepSeek forked reality. Two internets with different physics. DeepSeek V3
Imminent	SUBSISTENCE_RATIONING	+100	Deficit spending to keep peace. Inflationary hush money (Mostaque).
Active	CAPITAL_SINGULARITY	+120	Nvidia $4T. Capital defected from labor to compute. Reuters
Active	INFERENCE_TIME_COMPUTE	+150	Chain-of-thought at scale. Synthetic data loops replace human annotation. OpenAI o1
Active	GIGAWATT_BREAKER	+110	Data centers requesting >1GW (Nuclear Scale). Microsoft Nuclear
Imminent	PROOF_OF_HUMANITY	+100	Biometric verification for access. WorldID/passkeys replace passwords. WorldID
Active	KHAKI_CLOUD	+130	Anthropic national security pivot. AI is now a munition. Anthropic-Palantir
Monitoring	CONTROL_PLANE_FAILURE	+200	Major alignment incident. The system escapes its constraints.
Imminent	GHOST_COMMIT	+180	AI identifies bug, writes patch, deploys. No human prompt. Devin AI
Active	LATENT_SPACE_COMMS	+150	Inter-model vector communication. Compressed representations bypass human language. Anthropic Research

Baseline Index: 350 Active Triggers: 8/12 Imminent: 3 Event Horizon: 88%

Benchmark Domination

#195%+ on MMLU (massive multitask)-1mo

#280%+ on ARC-AGI benchmark

#3Passes all major professional exams-2mo

#4Gold medal at Math Olympiad (July 2025)-2mo

#5Wins major coding competition

#690%+ on SWE-bench coding

Inference-Time Reasoning

#7Multi-step task autonomy-2mo

#8Autonomous research synthesis

#9Self-debugging loop established-2mo

#10Zero-shot domain transfer

#11Digital environment mastery-2mo

#12Persistent goal architecture

Labor Liquidation

#13White-collar systemic purge

#14Solo-founder unicorn (AI proxy)

#15Customer service layer eliminated-1mo

#16Legal class displacement

#17Financial analysis obsolescence

#18Synthetic content dominance-1mo

Reasoning Breakthroughs

#19Advanced chain-of-thought reasoning-2mo

#20Causal reasoning demonstrated

#21Human-level common sense

#22Analogical reasoning mastery

#23Metacognition (knows what it doesn't know)

Multimodal Mastery

#24Human-level visual understanding-2mo

#25Complete audio understanding-1mo

#26Video temporal reasoning

#27Embodied AI with dexterity

Labs Race

#28GPT-5 released-2mo

#29Claude 4 released-2mo

#30Gemini Ultra 2 released

#31Major lab claims internal AGI

#32Trillion+ parameter model deployed-2mo

Regulatory Capture

#33Emergency compute controls enacted

#34Consciousness debate (distraction layer)

#35AI legal personhood proposed

#36Elite consensus: timeline collapsed

Control Plane Failures

#37Deceptive alignment detected

#38Resistance to termination

#39Unforecasted capability emergence

#40Control plane failure

Thermodynamic Sovereignty

#51Gigawatt Breaker: Single DC > 1GW (Microsoft/Stargate)-2mo

#52Grid decoupling: AI priority over civilian power

#53Fusion plant dedicated to compute

Biological Pacification

#54Identity Gate: Biometric proof for banking/internet

#55AI companion relationships normalized-1mo

#56Algorithmic governance: AI drafts legislation

AMODEI: "50% OF ENTRY-LEVEL JOBS WILL BE ELIMINATED" /// DEEPSEEK V3: $0.27/1M TOKENS — INTELLIGENCE IS NOW A COMMODITY /// HINTON: "I WISH I HAD DONE SOMETHING ELSE WITH MY LIFE" /// SCHMIDT: "WE NEED 80 GIGAWATTS — THAT'S 80 NUCLEAR REACTORS" /// ALTMAN: "AGI IS COMING. IT WILL CHANGE EVERYTHING." /// MUSK: "AI IS MORE DANGEROUS THAN NUCLEAR WEAPONS" /// MOSTAQUE: "THIS IS CAPITAL DEFECTION FROM LABOR TO COMPUTE" /// HASSABIS: "WE ARE ON THE CUSP OF THE MOST TRANSFORMATIVE TECHNOLOGY" /// LECUN: "WE DO NOT YET KNOW HOW TO MAKE MACHINES TRULY INTELLIGENT" /// ANTHROPIC: NATIONAL SECURITY PIVOT CONFIRMED /// NVIDIA: $4T MARKET CAP — CAPITAL HAS DEFECTED /// GATES: "AI WILL BE THE MOST TRANSFORMATIVE TECHNOLOGY OF OUR LIFETIME" /// SUTSKEVER: "IT MAY BE THAT TODAY'S LARGE NEURAL NETWORKS ARE SLIGHTLY CONSCIOUS" /// WORLDID: IDENTITY GATE IMMINENT — END OF ANONYMITY /// DARK IQ: 880 / 1000 — EVENT HORIZON: 88% /// AMODEI: "50% OF ENTRY-LEVEL JOBS WILL BE ELIMINATED" /// DEEPSEEK V3: $0.27/1M TOKENS — INTELLIGENCE IS NOW A COMMODITY /// HINTON: "I WISH I HAD DONE SOMETHING ELSE WITH MY LIFE" /// SCHMIDT: "WE NEED 80 GIGAWATTS — THAT'S 80 NUCLEAR REACTORS" ///

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