AGI Estimate

Artificial General Intelligence Timeline

Last Scan: 2026-03-15T05:34:20.197293

Estimated arrival of AGI

0

Months

Target Date: March 2026

13

Milestones Achieved

40

Total Milestones

-22

Months Accelerated

22

Baseline (Jan 2028)

Progress 32%

Capability Triggers

420 Capability Index (Threshold: 700)

EMERGING

Status	Trigger	Boost	Meaning
Monitoring	BENCHMARK_SUPREMACY	+80	AI exceeds human performance on ALL standard benchmarks.
Monitoring	AUTONOMOUS_RESEARCH	+120	AI conducts independent research and makes novel discoveries.
Monitoring	ECONOMIC_AUTONOMY	+100	AI can sustain itself economically without human direction.
Monitoring	RECURSIVE_IMPROVEMENT	+150	AI can improve its own capabilities. The feedback loop begins.
Monitoring	GENERAL_TRANSFER	+90	AI transfers knowledge across any domain like humans do.
Active	PERSISTENT_GOALS	+70	AI maintains and pursues goals across sessions and contexts.

Baseline Index: 350 Active Triggers: 1/6 AGI Estimate: 0 months

Benchmark Domination

#1 95%+ on MMLU (massive multitask) -1mo

#2 80%+ on ARC-AGI benchmark

#3 Passes all major professional exams -2mo

#4 Gold medal at Math Olympiad

#5 Wins major coding competition

#6 90%+ on SWE-bench coding

Autonomous Capability

#7 Reliable multi-step task completion -2mo

#8 AI autonomously writes research papers

#9 Self-debugging and code correction -2mo

#10 Zero-shot skill transfer demonstrated

#11 Reliable computer/browser operation -2mo

#12 Long-term planning and goal pursuit

Economic Impact

#13 Mass white-collar job displacement

#14 First solo-founder unicorn via AI

#15 Customer service fully AI-automated -1mo

#16 Legal work heavily automated

#17 Financial analysis automated

#18 AI-generated content dominates -1mo

Reasoning Breakthroughs

#19 Advanced chain-of-thought reasoning -2mo

#20 Causal reasoning demonstrated

#21 Human-level common sense

#22 Analogical reasoning mastery

#23 Metacognition (knows what it doesn't know)

Multimodal Mastery

#24 Human-level visual understanding -2mo

#25 Complete audio understanding -1mo

#26 Video temporal reasoning

#27 Embodied AI with dexterity

Labs Race

#28 GPT-5 released -2mo

#29 Claude 4 released -2mo

#30 Gemini Ultra 2 released

#31 Major lab claims internal AGI

#32 Trillion+ parameter model deployed -2mo

Societal Recognition

#33 Emergency AGI regulations passed

#34 Serious AI consciousness debate

#35 AI rights seriously proposed

#36 Expert consensus: AGI imminent

Warning Signs

#37 AI deception detected

#38 AI resists shutdown attempt

#39 Unexpected emergent capabilities

#40 Major alignment incident