Estimating the Singularity
We can't predict the future. But we can engineer for it.
Nobody knows when AGI will arrive. Nobody knows when superintelligence will follow. Anyone who claims certainty is selling something.
But here's the thing: uncertainty is not an excuse for inaction. We are engineers. We don't wait for perfect information. We build with the best estimates we have, and we design for the worst case.
The goal isn't to be right. The goal is to not be catastrophically wrong.
So we've built two live trackers. They aggregate milestones, capability triggers, and acceleration indicators into a rolling estimate. Will they be accurate? Almost certainly not. But they give us a baseline to work from—a shared reference point for the conversation that matters most.
Consider this your dashboard for the end of the world as we know it.
Start with the worst case. Hope for the best. Build for both.
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Dispatches from the edge of the intelligence explosion. Where thermodynamics meets theology.
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