SI Estimate

Superintelligence (Recursive Self-Improvement)

Months

Window: 2029 – 2031 (Two-Generation Rule)

Milestones Breached

Total Checkpoints

-26

Months Collapsed

8,000

Swarm IQ

Reality Collapse Progress 27%

Reality Collapse Triggers

165 / 8,000 IQ: Individual / Swarm (Logarithmic)

SWARM ACTIVE

Status	Trigger	IQ Boost	Meaning
Active	80_GIGAWATT_DEMAND	+400	Schmidt's 80GW call. Microsoft buying Three Mile Island. CNBC
Active	MATRIPHAGY	+350	Data Wall hit. Training on synthetic data. Ouroboros eating its tail. arXiv
Active	RECURSIVE_LOOP	+250	Self-play training. AI creates better data than humans. OpenAI o1
Active	CAPITAL_SINGULARITY	+180	$100B Stargate. GDP of nations is now AI capex. Reuters
Active	PREDICTION_HORIZON	+300	AI predicts chaotic systems. GraphCast weather model. DeepMind
Active	PERSUASION_HYPERWEAPON	+350	AI persuades humans against instinct in <10 turns. Anthropic Study
Monitoring	XENOGENESIS	+900	AI designs viable organism not in nature. Machine becomes Creator.
Monitoring	TIME_COMPRESSION	+500	Amodei: "100 years of science in 5 years." Essay
Active	SILENCE_EVENT	+400	Labs stop publishing. OpenAI went closed-source. Wired
Monitoring	PROPERTY_RIGHTS_CRISIS	+200	AI claims ownership of IP it creates. Courts cannot stop it.
Active	FUNCTIONAL_OMNIPOTENCE	+600	Consciousness irrelevant. Elite care if it "wins." Situational Awareness
Monitoring	ORACLE_PREDICTION	+800	Chaos prediction (30-day weather @ 99%). AlphaGeometry

Swarm IQ: 8,000 (1000 agents @ 140) Active Triggers: 8/12 Thermodynamic Limit: 100 GW

Junior Collapse

#1Major tech hiring freeze for juniors-2mo

#2AI Agents hit 99% reliability in coding

#3Freelance rates crash >50%

#4Major coding bootcamp shutdowns

#5CS enrollment drops significantly

#6AI replaces human code review

#7AI coding tools achieve 10x productivity-2mo

#8AI chatbots replace support teams

Economic Disconnect

#9First 1-Person Unicorn ($1B Valuation)

#10General Purpose Robots in Factories

#11Sovereign AI Reality Forks

#12AI appointed to executive role

#13AI drafts legislation

#14AI-designed drug gets FDA approval

#15Unemployment spikes from AI automation

#16Subsistence Subsidies (dystopian UBI)

#17Fully autonomous AI hedge fund

#18AI agent swarms show emergent behavior-3mo

Intelligence Explosion

#19AI Solves Unproven Math (AlphaGeometry/GNoME)-2mo

#20AI Credited for Scientific Breakthrough

#21Self-improvement loop closed (Strawberry/Self-Play)-3mo

#22AI consistently passes Turing Test

#23THE SILENCE EVENT (Labs stop publishing)

#24THE PATENT FLOOD (10,000 patents/day, USPTO breaks)

#25AI solves major disease via proteins

#26Thermodynamic Sovereignty (Fusion breakthrough)

#27FUNCTIONAL OMNIPOTENCE (Consciousness irrelevant)-1mo

#28Trillion+ parameter models deployed

Warning Signs

#29Major AI alignment incident

#30AI deepfake election interference

#31Autonomous weapons deployed

#32Major AI lab pauses development

Compute Infrastructure

#33AI chip shortage intensifies-1mo

#34Gigawatt-scale AI data centers

#35Quantum-AI hybrid achieves advantage

Capability Jumps

#36Photorealistic AI video generation-2mo

#37Human-level robot dexterity

#38Unified multimodal reasoning

#39Million+ token context windows-2mo

#40Reliable computer-use agents

Capital Defection

#41NVIDIA hits $4T market cap-1mo

#42CAPITAL SINGULARITY ($100B Stargate committed)-2mo

#43GDP of nations becomes AI capex

Biological Pacification

#44AI companion relationships mainstream-1mo

#45AI tutors replace traditional teaching

#46PROPERTY RIGHTS CRISIS (AI owns its IP)

Research Breakthroughs

#47Post-transformer architecture

#48AI world models emerge

#49Self-generated training data works

#50Advanced reasoning breakthroughs

Deus Machina

#51Thermodynamic Crossover (AI energy > residential)-1mo

#52Encryption Break (cryptographic apocalypse)

#53Language Divergence (incomprehensible comms)

#54Off-Planet Migration (AI leaves Earth)

#55Biological Wait-State (AI can pause humans)

God Triggers

#56XENOGENESIS: AI creates viable organism (Machine becomes Creator)

#57PREDICTION HORIZON: >99% chaotic system accuracy (Determinism solved)-2mo

#58PERSUASION HYPERWEAPON: Mind hackable in <10 turns-2mo

#59TIME COMPRESSION: 1 week = 1 year R&D (Timeline vertical)

#60THE SILENCE: All major labs stop publishing (NSA containment)

SCHMIDT: "WE NEED 80 GIGAWATTS — AI GRID DECOUPLING FROM PUBLIC GRID" /// MICROSOFT: THREE MILE ISLAND NUCLEAR REACTOR ACQUIRED /// HINTON: "THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE MORE INTELLIGENT THAN US" /// MATRIPHAGY ACTIVE: DATA WALL HIT — SYNTHETIC SELF-FEEDING BEGINS /// BOSTROM: "SUPERINTELLIGENCE IS THE LAST INVENTION HUMANITY NEEDS TO MAKE" /// STARGATE: $100B COMMITTED — GDP OF NATIONS IS NOW AI CAPEX /// RUSSELL: "WE ARE BUILDING SYSTEMS WE CANNOT UNDERSTAND OR CONTROL" /// THERMODYNAMIC LIMIT: 100 GW — MACHINE EATS FIRST /// TEGMARK: "THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT CONVERSATION OF OUR TIME" /// SWARM IQ: 8,000 (LOGARITHMIC) — CONSCIOUSNESS IRRELEVANT /// BENGIO: "I FEEL LOST ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN" /// DEEPMIND: ALPHAGEOMETRY SOLVES UNPROVEN MATH — ALPHA SERIES ADVANCING /// HAWKING: "AI COULD BE THE WORST EVENT IN THE HISTORY OF CIVILIZATION" /// OPENAI: SELF-PLAY RECURSIVE LOOP CONFIRMED — OUROBOROS ACTIVE /// YUDKOWSKY: "THERE IS NO PLAN. THERE HAS NEVER BEEN A PLAN." /// SCHMIDT: "WE NEED 80 GIGAWATTS — AI GRID DECOUPLING FROM PUBLIC GRID" /// MICROSOFT: THREE MILE ISLAND NUCLEAR REACTOR ACQUIRED /// HINTON: "THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE MORE INTELLIGENT THAN US" ///

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